After more than half a month of continuous decline, on […]
After more than half a month of continuous decline, on May 27, PTA futures finally ushered in a wave of rebound. As of the close of May 27, the main price of PTA futures closed at 1,909 points at 5,436 points, an increase of 120 points or 2.26% over the previous trading day.
In addition to PTA, ethylene glycol futures contracts also rose to varying degrees on May 27.
In particular, polyester filaments have been in a downturn in the past few days, and once again said that they have risen; in particular, some manufacturers have changed their previous preferential measures and raised the offer price on the 27th by 50-100 yuan / ton. The production and sales of the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets rebounded on the weekend. The average production and sales of major polyester filament manufacturers was around 240%, and some were as high as 300% and 500%.
The polyester environment in May was spent in a downswing. Why did polyester raw materials start to rebound against the trend at the end of the month?
1. There is no drop in polyester raw materials, and the profit of the entire industrial chain is lacking.
According to the above table, since the same period last month, the prices of polyester products are in a downward trend. The biggest decline was ethylene glycol, which fell by 41.94%, PX by 16.45%, and POY150D by 16.18%, and the prices of other raw materials also showed a significant decline.
Compared with the price of raw materials continued to rise after April last year, the increase rate is as high as 70%. From the perspective of this year, polyester raw materials have gone out of the altar of price increases, and the current prices are at low levels over the years.
Taking PTA as an example, the price of PTA has fallen to the level of the beginning of the year. According to the calculation of PTA production costs, after the rapid decline in PX prices in the previous round, the PTA processing spread showed a rocket-like rapid rise and then a rapid decline. The production cost of the domestic PTA plant was 5119.86 yuan / ton, and the PTA processing cost was 1155 yuan / ton, down by 456 yuan or 28.3% from the previous month. As the saying goes, long-term decline will rise, and the price repeatedly hits a new low, the greater the opportunity for the market to wait for an upswing and a dip.
2. Under the background of low raw material inventory in the weaving factory, we are welcoming replenishment at the end of the month
Although the situation in the downstream weaving market in the near future is not optimistic, the current startup rate has not been significantly reduced. Judging from the data, the current average operating rate of the weaving market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is still around 60-70%; among them, the operating rate in Shengze is relatively strong, maintaining the level of 80-90%. Based on the production needs of the downstream weaving market, coupled with the prudent operation of raw material procurement in the previous period of falling raw material prices, weaving companies have low levels of raw material inventory.
Secondly, it is currently at the end of May. For the downstream weaving market, it has both the demand for invoices at the end of the month, and the low inventory of raw materials that just needs to be stocked, plus the current low level of polyester yarn prices. No matter which aspect, it has stimulated the enthusiasm of the weaving manufacturers to purchase, and promoted certain market production and sales.
It can be seen that the rebound of polyester raw materials this time is more because profits have fallen, and the downstream low raw material inventory catalyzes the fact that there are not many significant positive factors.
1. There is still space in the "collapse" of polyester raw materials
Although there is no need to exaggerate the impact of the situation of apparel and textile counterparts in the United States on polyester raw materials, short-term negatives still exist.
It is not only that polyester demand growth may be slower than expected, resulting in price wars for polyester products. In fact, the collapse of cost support caused by a large amount of new PX capacity in 2019-2020 has been staged in April. In fact, after the sharp decline, the current processing spread of PX has been very low, even losing money, so the space below is limited. However, the weak pattern of PX is also basically determined, and the support of PTA no longer exists in terms of cost.
While Sichuan Shengda's new capacity of 1 million tons has just been put into production, new Fengming new capacity will be available in September-October this year. In 2020, a new round of PTA expansion cycle will be opened. The expansion cycle of downstream polyester will basically come to an end this year. The growth of terminal demand is closely related to the macro economy. It is still unknown whether the growth trend is as strong as expected.
Therefore, for PTA long-month prices, the opening of the downward cycle is likely to happen sooner or later. Thanks to the high operating rate of polyester, the current PTA social inventory level is not high. In fact, it is still in a state of supply and demand balance, and its direct supply and demand relationship has not changed drastically. Therefore, even in the weak state of the entire industry chain, Under the circumstances, there is still room for PTA prices to fluctuate.
If the polyester bears a heavy load, PTA supply will increase sharply, and once again falls into an oversupply accumulation cycle, at the same time, according to the processing fee of 600 yuan, PTA will still have a large profit margin. If the market still does not have good news guidance, do not rule out Post-processing profits continue to be squeezed. PTA processing spreads may face reallocation, and prices will no longer improve.
2, weaving market is difficult to pick up
Polyester raw materials have ushered in a long-lost rebound, can it drive the recovery of the downstream weaving market? The conclusion seems a bit pessimistic.
In the current market, the accumulation of grey cloth inventory is indeed very serious. Because the off-season in the first half of this year is nearly half a month earlier than in previous years, the inventory of most weaving enterprises is more than half an month more than before. Based on a water jet loom weaving 300 meters of cloth per day, a large and medium-sized weaving factory with 500 water jet loom can weave 300 * 500 * 30 equal to 4.5 million meters of cloth in one month, even if it is half a month In stock, there are more than 2 million meters.
An industrial and trade integration, the principal of polyester taffeta, Oxford cloth, and also has its own weaving factory manager Shen said to the author: for the weaving mill, the inventory is significantly more, the pressure is greater, and raised funds Very big test.
Mr. Liu, another textile company, also said that there were fewer orders for large goods from customers this year. Last year, there were many varieties of hundreds of thousands of meters. This year, there will be nothing. Instead, there will be more proofing and small cylinders. Judging from the situation, the inventory of grey fabrics is indeed quite large, and there are some cases of dumping in the market.
It can be seen that this year's textile business has indeed declined compared with the past two years, and the accumulation of gray cloth inventory is difficult to digest. It also exists objectively. Compared with the same period of previous years, the current weaving manufacturers' profits are lower. "At this time last year, our polyester taffetas made a hundred dollars a day, and now it is good to not lose. Most polyester taffetas are Taiwan loom can make 10 yuan, 190T polyester taff is already losing money. "Mr. Shen, the owner of a weaving plant in Wujiang area, said.
Due to the impact of external production capacity, this year's conventional product market has been in a busy season, and in May, these products have even weaker sales in the market. Some manufacturers said that the polyester taffeta dropped from 1.70 yuan / meter at the beginning of the year to 1.10 yuan / meter at present. (According to common sense, every 1,000 yuan in raw materials, the cost reflected in the gray fabric is 0.10-0.20 yuan / meter). From the beginning of the year to now, the polyester filament FDY has fallen by 1,300 yuan / ton. The grey fabric only needs to fall by 0.10-0.20 yuan / meter, but now the price of polyester taffo has fallen by 0.50 yuan / meter, of which 0.30 yuan / meter is eroding the original profit margin of the manufacturer.
It is reported that at present 230T polyester taffeta can still have a certain capital preservation ability in the market, and 190T polyester taffeta has entered the margin of profit and loss. "The market goes on like this, weaving one day of cloth, one day of loss! But the machine is not working, it can only be sold at a low price and exchange some cash." Said the general manager of another weaving factory, Chen.
The "beaten chicken blood" market reappears, how long will this wave of raw material rebound last?
There is no exact answer to this question. The emergence of the current rebound has certain benefits to the current market. Industry analysts said that the difference between the previous production and sales is that this rebound, under the long-term price decline, the market needs a "beating chicken blood" market, the weaving industry buying desire may be stronger.
However, at present, it is more difficult for the polyester market to get out of the bull market last year. As far as the short term is concerned, it does provide a boost to the rise in the market for polyester filaments. With the good production and sales of polyester manufacturers, the high inventory pressure in the early stage also has a certain degree. However, after all, the impact on the market of polyester filament is effective in the short term. In the final analysis, the price of polyester products needs to be further increased. In the final analysis, it needs the cooperation of the upstream and downstream supply and demand links.